Reviewing Kenya's Vision 20230

LAPSSET Corridor: New Impetus

KENYA’S Long-term development Blueprint, Vision 2030, launched in 2007, is hurtling toward the end. And Kenyans are discussing a new blueprint- Beyond 2030.

Now, it is time to review Vision 2030. Did it deliver? Is it a good foundation to build a new blueprint? Were there weaknesses? What were they? Can they be redeemed?

 Vision 2030 “aimed to transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income nation providing high quality of life for all its citizens by 2030. It was premised on three pillars Viz: Economic, Social, and Political. Anchored on Enablers and Macro foundations.”

The target is defined. We can now review it. Did Vision 2030 deliver?  According to the scorecard published by the Vision 2030 Secretariat, by 2024 significant progress had been made in all the pillars except the Economic Pillar. The Political Pillar, the least technical of the three, was 88.2 percent enforced. The Social pillar, incorporating education, Health, Clean water, Sanitation and affordable housing was nearly 60 Percent implemented. The Flagship projects- LAPSSET and Konza City, were 61 percent implemented.

It was only the economic pillar, transforming Kenya into a highly industrialized middle-income country where targets were missed. The major target was a GDP growth of 10 percent for 25 years. Economic growth has hovered around 4-5 percent for the longest period during the 17 years of the blueprint to 2024.

However, targets on this Pillar are fluid. In fact, the data on the economic performance paints a different picture.   Industrialization depends on other factors such as reliable infrastructure, cost of doing business, markets, political stability, and  externalities over which the country has no control.

Since industrializing was a major target, and was also the most sluggish, it is easy to dismiss the target as a failure. But looking at performance in other areas, the stage was set for this target to be hit in the near future.

 

Lamu Port: From Blue print to Reality

For instance, infrastructure performance was exemplary. We have: the standard Gauge Railway; Lamu Port; more electricity; more bitumen roads. These are the building blocks that precede industrialization. And the expansion of the GDP demonstrates without doubt, that some serious work has been going on.

According to the Vision 2030 scorecard, GDP in 2024 was 9 times higher than in 2007. In 2007, Kenya’s GDP was US$23 billion. In 2024, 17 years later, GDP stood at US$126 billion. GDP per capita rose from US$611 to $2,400 in 2024.

Let’s turn to the building blocks. In 2007, Kenya’s electricity generating capacity was 1196MW.  In 2024, it was 3811.6 MW, an almost 320 percent increase.  In 2007 some 1.06 million households were connected to the national grid. That number rose to 9.69 million in 2024. In 2007, there were 9,293 Kilometres of Bitumen roads. In 2024, that total had risen to 25,410 Kilometers.

Also note this; in 2007 internet connectivity was difficult and expensive since we relied on high Speed undersea cables in Europe. Since then, three undersea cables have landed in Kenya, one of them owned by the government of Kenya and local  telecoms giants.

Now, internet connectivity is available even in remote areas. For this reason Internet-connectivity has risen to 40 per cent of all Kenyans. MPESA, the local Mobile money transfer application was launched in the same year.  By the end of the first MTP in 2012, close to  Kshs 1.74 trillion passed through the app. In 2024, some 8.69 trillion changed hands through MPESA in payment of goods and services.

Also rising was mobile connectivity rising from 11.35 million in 2007 to 71.4 million Sim cards in 2024. There are more Sim cards than there  are adults in Kenya!

Other significant developments were also recorded in the financial, the tourism, the blue economy, and agriculture sectors.  All posted marked growth over the period. The financial sector  for instance has posted an impressive rise in its share of the GDP, rising from 4.8 per cent in 2007 to 7.9 percent  in 2024. It is noteworthy that the sector has witnessed the growth of behemoths operating in several countries in the region. Some of the these behemoths have capital bases as large as the GDP of some countries in the region.

The agriculture sector contribute 22.46 percent in 2007 amounting to Kshs 411 billion. In 2024, its share held steady with a larger financial  contribution of Kshs 3.65 trillion.

Growth in these sectors and others spawned demand for labour, resulting in growth of wage employment from 1.91 million in 2007 to 3.22 million in 2024. That is a 169 percent increase in 17 years. Not really good, but it’s a marked growth.

The 61 percent performance in the flagship project is also something worth writing home about. Both were green field projects like building a new Konza city from a Savannah grassland or turning a former fishing port into a major international Port in Lamu.

Lamu, a natural deep sea Port has three out of 32 berths operating. It has been a transshipment Port for the last few years. However, its status has just got a major boost with the entry of Dangote Industries. The firm will build a US$17 billion Petrochemical complex near the port. Since the Port can handle, Post Panamax and Post Suezmax vessels, it has been catapulted into international maritime limelight.

Konza City: No Longer an artists impression

The Port is expected to be a shot in the arm for LAPSSET (Lamu Port South Sudan Ethiopia) multi modal transport project. This project incorporates High Speed Rail, a Highway, and an Oil Pipeline. With a 700,000 BPD refinery, these projects are now viable venture to evacuate white oils from the refinery and also crude from South Sudan and Northern Kenya.

The Dangote Plant is also a catalyst for massive industrialization in Lamu, Garissa, and Isiolo Counties since it could, in theory, attract several industrial complexes into the region to exploit raw materials produced in the Petrochemical plant. And could catapult Industrialization in Kenya at the tail end of Vision 2030.

It is worth noting that the data available is correct up to 2024, the second year of the current administration and that work is ongoing. By the end of the Fifth Medium Term plan in 2027, a  lot more  will have been  achieved. The launch of the US$17 billion East Africa Petro Chemical project next month, could propel industrialization to greater heights.  It is the single largest investment in the country’s history.

The remaining three years of Vision 2030 will be interesting to watch.