Five years of Uhuru- How will Kenya look like in 2022?
The SGR Railway Phase 2 has already begun |
Since we don’t see
any threat to his Presidency, we can preview a Kenya under Kenyatta in the next
five years.
He came to office on a transformation agenda. So we ask: What
should we expect from him? How will Kenya be in 2022 when he leaves office?
Will it be a prosperous and progressive nation or will it be poor and
reactionary?
The odds appear stacked in favor of his transformation
agenda. Good luck, his personality,
political environment and motivation combined favor the expectation of a
positively transformed Kenya.
President Kenyatta
inherited a robust economy from his predecessor, Mwai Kibaki.
And despite, a
tough environment during his first term, he managed to keep the economy
robust. He inherited a US$60 billion
economy and had driven it to a $72 billion economy by the end of last year.
He also inherited a robust 30 year economic blue print
“christened Vision2030” whose mantra is a transformed and industrializing Kenya
by 2030. So far he has kept to it.
He has supported the
completion of infrastructure projects that were began by his predecessor. He
presided over the completion and/or launch of a number of the key projects
envisaged in the blue print.
His first term was tumultuous and the learning curve was
steep, yet he executed himself impressively. He came to office on a
transformation agenda, making Kenya a better place to live and prosper.
He has kept a number of his pre-election promises such as
free maternity for expectant mothers, delivered laptops to primary school
children despite some major hiccups. He
has set up a number of “one- shop stop e-centres bringing government services
closer to the people.
Galana Kulalu: Likely to attract his undivided attention |
Kenyatta’s first term was defined by big spending on eye-catching
infrastructure and impressive economic growth which ranged above 5 per cent, in
a tough climate.
His resolute handling of sensitive matters stunned both
friend and foe alike. He borrowed large
amounts of money to invest in infrastructure; fought drugs cartels- sinking two
ships caught ferrying drugs and allowed drug Lords to be repatriated to the US
to face the law.
He weathered storms
at home including Somalia based militant attacks on: School children, shoppers
at a mall, a military base in Al Ade in Somalia and civilians in Lamu, Wajir
and Mandera counties; dismantled “tenderprenuer” cartels and shrugged off their
flack. “Tenderprenuers” are characters who make their
living from fronting bidders for government projects for a cut.
His administration build
the first Railway line in Kenya in 100 years completing the gigantic project
with 18 months to spare.
His administration is likely to focus on completing the SGR
line to Kisumu and Malaba, ensure Galana Kulalu is operational, complete some
of the on-going mega projects in water, roads, electricity, ensure free
education from primary through secondary, built a few thousand more kilometres
of tarmacked roads and Start the construction of LAPSSET.
To be fair, many of the projects completed in his first term were began by previous administration. In fact even those that will completed during his second term were initiated by the previous administrations.
We expect more electricity
generation capacity to come on the grid adding to the 2234 MW already on the
grid.
We also expect oil exports to begin during his watch. The
contract for transportation are already in place. In fact the early oil exports
programme should have commenced in June but was delayed by technical hiccups.
His uncompromising stand weeded out cheating cartels in the education
sector restoring respectability to Kenyan education certificates.
He shrugged off allegations of massive corruption in his
government and delivered leased medical equipment to referral hospitals in the
47 counties. Now Kidney patients can get
dialysis in their county Hospitals.
So do we expect President to deliver this time around? The
omens point to that direction. For starters, this being his constitutionally
authorized last term in office, he is likely to be keen on his legacy than
politics. This means that he shall have to deliver on his promises.
He has a large majority in Parliament and even in the
counties. That ensures that he has fewer
saboteurs to deal with. Even in
Opposition dominated counties, opposition is likely to be muted given that
their leader, the militant Raila Odinga, has been vanguished and is expected to
quit politics.
However, this
overwhelming majority could also be exploited to pass legislation that will
stifle Kenyans. NGOS that have been critical of him and those that helped
sabotage his pet projects and the press too, could find themselves under siege.
Already, two NGOs that were accused of fishing and coaching alleged
witnesses against him at the ICC are beginning to feel his weight. For them,
this could be payback time. They have sought refuge in the High court seeking
orders to protect themselves against de-registration but it may not be long
before they cease to exist.
Alternatively, their freedoms could be severely
curtailed. Either way, the omens do not look good for them and could soon
follow “tenderprenuers” and other cartels into oblivion.
How will Kenya look like in 2022? Well, we leave that to the
omens. But our view is,
it will be a transformed country with reduced
unemployment rates, steady economic growth, perhaps above 6.00 per cent, lower
corruption index, more industries, higher FDI inflow and for the ordinary
Kenyan, more democratic space and wider economic opportunities.
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