East Africa Economic Report

Ethiopia's GDP projected  to remain robust    East Africa’s GDP is expected to grow by 13.3 percent to US$340 billion this year, says IMF Database for April 2019. The five largest economies in the region will raise the total regional GDP by US$28.2 billion to control $302.2 billion in 2019 from the $265 billion they controlled last year.   The regional GDP last year stood at US$300 billion, according to the IMF data.   This year, the GDP is expected to rise to $340 billion. Of the five star performers, Kenya and Ethiopia generated 57 percent or $169.5 billion last year.   The star performers including Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Uganda will grow by an average of 6.32 percent including Tanzania. But if Tanzania is excluded. The top four will rise by 7.1 percent. Kenya, says the IMF data, will be the leader posting absolute GDP growth of $11 billion, leaving her peers to share the rest of the spoils. In generating such large absolute gro...

President Magufuli:  dwindling economic fortunes  pose a challenge to his re-election  After years of neglecting due process and imposing unsustainable policies and legislation, the Tanzanian economy is decelerating. According to the IMF database for April 2019, Tanzania’s GDP growth rate has sharply declined from more than 6 percent on average, to 4 percent this year. The rate will remain subdued over the next four to five years says the IMF. This sharply contrasts the country’s optimistic estimates of a 7.3 percent growth this year, up from an alleged 7.2 percent last year. None of the independent reports on the Tanzanian economy supports the government’s position. For instance, the Regional Economic Outlook by the African Development Bank estimates that the GDP grew by 6.6 percent last year. The IMF data agrees with these findings in their review but estimates a sharp 2.7 percentage decline this year which according to IMF gurus, marks the start of the lean p...

SGR in Kenya. Chinese completed it with 18 months to spare The second scramble for Africa is in top gear.  A few things are different though from the first Scramble. At that time, missionaries led the ‘discovery” of entire Africa with Bibles in their hands. The second scramble targets African resources, that is true, but it is more discrete. Targeted are the large African economies such as Nigeria, Ghana, Ethiopia, and Kenya. The last two economies are the largest in East Africa and are growing robustly. In fact, Ethiopia is among the top ten fast-growing economies in the fast-growing region. Kenya is the more dynamic of the two, with a well- established entrepreneurial culture. The next difference is the drivers of the scramble. In the first scramble, the pathfinders- discoverers if you wish- were Missionaries and explorers. These have been replaced by Government officials and businessmen.  This is not a contest for African resources among European countries. It is ...