The Supreme Court of Kenya on Monday this week sealed Raila Odinga’s political fate. By upholding Uhuru Kenyatta’s re-election on October 26th, it paved the way for Kenya to go back to abnormal because Raila is done!
Go back to abnormal? To many Kenyans normal is going back to their normal routine. That’s true. But one “normal” will be missing- regular disruptions by Raila Odinga and his surrogates. Odingaism is Kaput!
The old man, a very good mobilizer but a poor strategist brought this on himself. He chose the wrong path to State House and has never learnt from his previous failures, probably because he believes his own lies. He created an impression of a national outlook in his party by surrounding himself with communities that do not have the numbers to take him to state house, unless he is running alone! That was a sure way to keep him in the opposition benches.
Politics is about numbers and persuasion. He is very poor in both. He was a poor student at school both in Kenya and East Germany, where he took to so long to understand basic concepts. That poor scholarly aptitude is echoed in the political school where he has failed to grasp a basic truth about numbers and politics.
He failed completely to penetrate the vote-rich central Rift valley and Mount Kenya region due to his brinkmanship- he believes in bullying, intimidation, disruption and violence which put-off many Kenyans, including his late father, Jaramogi Odinga Oginga. This was noted as a major weakness by his Marxism instructors in East Germany who found him disorganized, disruptive and lawless-never kept time for instance, says an EU council intelligence. Even to date he has few friends in Kenya.
He is unruly and does not belief in due process. This character almost brought the Supreme Court of Kenya, which invalidated Uhuru’s win in August 8th, into disrepute. Instead of obeying the Court’s orders, by going to campaign, he resorted to disruptive tactics- making demands for personnel changes at the IEBC and a plethora of other demands unrelated to the elections.
When his will hit a stone all, he pretended to withdraw from the election and when that failed, he called for the boycott of the elections. Despite this call and the violent blockade of voters in his Luo Nyanza, the election still went ahead and he lost by seven million votes.
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And now his options are limited. One way that seems open to him, is open defiance and probably getting sworn in as President. This is high treason which carries a mandatory death sentence. There is also the international Criminal Court, which is monitoring his activities and would surely relish a date with him. Will he take that route? Only time will tell.
The entry of ICC into the picture is a pointer to his declining popularity in the West. His recent trips to the US and Britain were flops. He has painted himself into a corner.
But for the time being, he and his surrogates have no option but to rant and yell-shouting intimidating slogans whose viability is next to Zero. Only one result is possible- failure.
The journey to Canaan is over. It’s back to the wilderness for him and his surrogates, a failure that will spawn a string of destitute people, who hanged on his coat labels.
Topping the casualty list is businessman, Jimmi Wanjigi, who invested billions of shillings funding Raila and NASA in an attempt to bring Uhuru down. Instead, he could end up going down the drain as the billions he blew up supporting Raila could turn out to be a complete waste.
He supported NASA on the understanding that if the party wins, he shall get almost all mega infrastructure and security contracts amounting to Kshs 2.27 trillion. From these he hoped to make Ksh 400 billion in profits. This made investing tens of billions a worthy investment. Chances are he is facing another five years of financial drought which spells doom for the tenderprenuer.
The self- proclaimed “Father of political patronage” like all other party supporters are living in denial. They still brag that they shall install Raila as president. That remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain, Uhuru will ensure that Wanjigi is cut to size. He has already crippled his two major projects, the SGR and the second terminal at JKIA. There is no reason to belief any other projects will not be crippled in future- if he ever gets them that is.
With Wanjigi trimmed, the protest industry emerges as the next potential destitute. Without Wanjigi bankrolling it, It is dead. Some NGOs may try to fit in his ugly shoes, but they are also equally vulnerable. The end for street protest over every little matter is nigh, hence our abnormal future.
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There is talk of sabotage, that is, all NASA MPs and Senators will resign en-mass citing dissatisfaction with the president. This is a probable move, but a disastrous one, just like the People’s assembly. It remains to be seen how many MPs would risk their salaries now to go to a new election. There is serious doubt whether more than 100 MPs would resign. And even if they did, 100 out of a 290 member house is a minority that can be filled through by-elections.
This is one idea that is appealing but impracticable. Just like the boycott idea, this will add to a string of failures in the past. These include: Okoa Kenya; the journey to Canaan; boycotting certain companies and products; labour unrest in critical sectors of the public service such as Doctors, Nurses, teachers, lecturers; boycott of elections and finally NRM. Raila was out foxed at every turn and now he appears headed for the oblivion.
He has two choices in his journey to oblivion: Either exit the stage quietly and peacefully or take the path to self-destruction- violence and defiance. Either way, the destination is oblivion! What is not clear is how soon the journey will end.