Thursday, 21 September 2017

Annulment of Kenya Presidential election: Pedestal..Judicial activism

The USCJ 's tweet
When the Supreme Court of Kenya annulled the election of President Kenyatta three weeks ago, it was a precedent. It was hailed world-wide as a first in Africa, where a Supreme Court Judge had the temerity to invalidate the election of a sitting President. 
However, the Chief Justice of the US supreme court has dismissed the ruling as Pedestal... judicial Activism

When the President in a fit of anger dismissed the ruling as the “work of thugs promising to fix the Judiciary if re-elected, legal minds in Africa went for his Jugular, “lecturing” him on respect for institutions of governance and especially the judiciary.

This is where the legal minds missed the point.  There was an ominous threat in the President’s use of the word wakora- Kiswahili for dishonest people. That word for any student of linguistics was an indication that the President knew more than he said.

 While the world was cheering the decision of the Court, some in Kenya could not make sense of a ruling that had no definite culprit. The Court exonerated the President of any wrong doing; blaming the mess on the body the managed the election. The voter turnout was large; the voting process was peaceful and calm; the failures of the electoral commission were not criminal in nature said the Court; the numbers each garnered were not in question. So what went wrong? What justified sabotaging the voter’s will?

Three weeks later, things fell apart.  A Petition was filed with the Judicial Service Commission calling for the dismissal of two of the four Judges who annulled the President’s election.  The judges, the petitioner said, were in “improper contact” with the Lawyers and representatives of the Presidential petitioner, during the hearing of the matter before them. 

The two judges were said to have met with the advocates of the petitioner in a residential flat in a city up- market estate and in a hospital. The calls logs of their telephone numbers were also listed as evidence of such inappropriate contact.
A leaked document from the chief strategist of the Opposition chief also admitted as much. The document advises complete silence over the explosive discovery. It also advises ceasing of all communication with the named Judges.
 The detailed ruling of the finding of September 1st read on Sept.20th exonerated the IEBC and the President of any wrong doing. But there were two dissenting judges in the Supreme Court ruling and the two minced no words tearing the findings of their four colleagues apart. 
Letter allegedly written by Orengo
The two dissenters, who are also long serving judges of the Supreme Court, found no evidence in the petition to warrant invalidation of the election results. They wondered what evidence was adduced before the court to warrant such a decision. The two dissenting judges depicted their colleagues as a lazy lot that depended on the word of the petitioner to annul a lawful and valid election.
One of the dissenting Judges, Lady Justice Njoki Ndungu, accused her four Colleagues of not even verifying the documents filed in the Court Registry. Her verification, she said, found that all documents presented as forgeries were in fact intact in the Court Registry. She wondered why the Court did not order for the recount of the Presidential votes.
Apart from the two dissenting judges in the Apex Court, The chief Justice of the United States of America, John G Roberts in a tweet dismissed the ruling of the Supreme Court of Kenya as “Pedestal ….Judicial activism,” The judgement, he said was no more than “redeeming their image and seeking international publicity.”
 If this tweet is true, then his is a harsh indictment if there was any.
Kenyan critics had already dismissed the ruling as a “Court assisted Coup” by regime changers in the NGO world.
 Given such harsh indictment by critics and probably peers, it seems Kenya’s Supreme Court will set another precedent in Africa, of a court that executed itself as Lazy and discredited itself.
 Apart from the dissenting Judges, two other judges also played hide- and- seek.  One fell sick for the duration of the hearing leaving the petition to be heard by a six –Judge Bench instead of a full bench of seven Judges.
One of the four judges that made the majority ruling was “out of the country” on the day of the detailed ruling. But whispers have it he bolted out on realizing there was mischief by his two colleagues. A tweet by the two leading dailies indicated that he pulled out because the allegations of improper conduct on the part of his colleagues “were undeniable.”
So where next after this? Analysts say that President Kenyatta will win the election again. And once in Office, there will be a bomb dropped at Kenya’s apex Court. Three of the seven judge bench are headed out, “whether they have security of tenure or not.” The three include; Chief Justice David Maraga, his deputy Philomena Mwilu and Justice Isaac Lenaola. The three who are also new entrants in the Supreme Court, have their credibility dented beyond repair.
 Snippets of the evidence filed to support allegations of improper contact, were so detailed as to suggest the hand of the country’s spy outfit, the National Intelligence Service, NIS. If this is true, then the three judges should start leaving else they shall be hounded out of office.
There are doubts that the CJ and his deputy even wrote their rulings given that they had difficulties reading the rulings. “They stammered like class- two kids learning to read a complete word,” said an observer. Kenyans too have not spared them. A local critic. Prof. Mutahi Ngunyi, said in a tweet that Justice JB Ojwang, one of the dissenting Judges, executed himself with such confidence “he made the CJ look like crass.” Mutahi wondered why “JB is not the Chief Justice in Kenya.”
 That is a view shared by many Kenyans who want the CJ out.

 The re-alignment in the Supreme Court over the Presidential Vote ruling, is a pointer that a major surgery is due in the Apex court. And the old hands in the Court, Justices, Ojwang, Wanjala, Ndungu and Ibrahim appear to have allowed the new comers, Justices, Maraga, Mwilu and Lenaola to roast in their own fat. Apart from the three losing face among Kenyans, they stand a chance of being a case study at how judges should not rule.

  From Africa Development Magazine

Thursday, 14 September 2017

The economic cost of Raila’s brinkmanship

Kenya’s economic growth this year, which was projected to hit 5.9 per cent, has slowed down. It is projected to slow to over 4.0 per cent.
Kibera: Home of the wretched of the earth.
Raila's constituency for 20 yrs
The country was facing a slow-down in economic activity during the political campaigns, which slowdown eased after the results were announced, declaring President Kenyatta the winner.  However, the Ruling on September 1st, took the country back on the roller coaster.
 In a matter of hours, three hours to be precise, the Nairobi Stock Exchange’s capitalization shaved off Kshs 92 billion, and by the end of the second trading day, Monday September4th, the losses had climbed to Kshs 131billion.
 In the forex market, the shilling which had been gaining since Uhuru was declared President, was also battered. It shred off 35 cents against the US dollar after the ruling. 
It opened at 102/75 buying 102.95 selling Friday morning but slumped to 103.10 buying 103.20 selling. Kenyan debt stock overseas also bled. On that day alone Kenya’s forex reserves were shaved off kshs 356 million. The country’s daily turnover is slightly more than US$10 million.

The middle class has adopted a wait- and–see stance, consuming less and saving more. The shilling is still struggling to recover its Pre- Sept1 strength. Investors have decamped while others have kept their plans on hold.

  The economy was struggling due to drought effects which slowed down agricultural output. Food prices were high driven by shortages caused by the drought.

But now the crisis sparked off by the “conscience ruling” and the political brinkmanship that NASA has adopted since the SCOK ruling that “vindicated” him is bleeding the economy. Why is this? Raila has little appreciation of economic matters.

 According to a strategy Paper dated September, 8th, 2007, ODM identifies Raila’s weaknesses as limited understanding of Economic Matters as a major weakness, potential for linkage with under-development in Nyanza and Political party nomadism. The paper also lists his threats as Kibera’s under development and his penchant for making ad hoc improvised statements.

The paper, minutes of a strategy meeting by the core team comprising of; Prof. Anyang’ Nyong’o the then ODM Secretary General, Prof. Edward Oyugi; Prof. Patrick Wanyande and Mr. Adams Oloo lists deception  and bribery of journalists and editors as some of the ways of covering up for the weaknesses.

 A Policy Brief by the EU intelligence unit has clearly described him as poorly educated. It says, he never attended any institution of higher learning in East Germany. Although registered in the Technical Institut of Magdeburg, he never attended class.

The EU Policy brief says he will not even blink if Kenya was to tip over into chaos if that is the price the country has to pay for his accommodation in the government.  It says he impressed his handlers in Stasi, the East Germany secret Police during the cold war era, with his grasp of political brinkmanship using violence to achieve is ambitions.

 Raila has always been a disruptive person quick top resort to violence to keep his ambitions going. His supporters are quick to resort to violence and destruction at the slightest provocation, even if it’s a rumour.
 It is to be recalled that in 2008 the same brinkmanship devastated the country’s GDP growth from seven Percent in 2007 to just about two per cent in 2008. In the last five years, he spent time sabotaging the sitting government with allegations after allegation of corruption.

 He even fought and destroyed the National Youth Service programme that was upgrading lives in the slums. Although there was some corruption, that was the smokescreen he used to destroy a programme that was a major threat to his political base, the lumpen proletariat living in the slums.

Now we are about to witness another economic slump due to his shenanigans.  We are now at the  deception and disruption stage according to his book, the next step would be destruction!  Kenya, the economic hub of east Africa is being sabotaged by one person and his cohorts. That the Economics costs of Railaism for you.

Saturday, 9 September 2017

Raila’s mantra: deceive, defraud, disrupt and/or destroy

Mpeketoni in 2014: Was the attack meant
 to scuttle the Eurobond?

According to an intelligence review seen by this publication, Opposition leader, Raila Odinga’s political strategy involves 4Ds which have put Kenya on the brink of a precipice.
 The 4Ds are: Deceive, Defraud, Disrupt and/or Destroy. The publication says he learnt this strategy from agents of the foreign intelligence section of Stasi, the East German secret police of the cold war era.
The unit was led by Markus wolf, the famous man without a face who outsmarted western spy agencies due to his ability to elude being photographed.

 According to the publication, Raila was sent to study in East German in the 60s when his Father Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, was Vice-President in Kenya. 

The man only qualified for a certificate in ability to speak German from Herder Institut. The Document, Policy Brief, by the European council of Foreign Relations authored by its EU intelligence and Situation Analysis Centre, describes Raila as a poor student who took four years to gain the certificate.

Titled The Great Unravelling Doomsday scenario: Kenya on the edge of Precipice, the document says Raila was enrolled at the Technical School of Magdenburg but never attended class for a single day. He was busy learning Marxist ideology with East German Marxists “who saw his connections back home as a useful asset in the wider scheme of ideological influence in Africa.”

 Quoting declassified East German documents, the Brief says that Raila was perpetually broke in East German so he turned to smuggling, heading a  drug smuggling ring  to West German and vice versa. “He smuggled European cigarette Brands and Marijuana to his East German handlers through the check point Charlie, the best known Berlin wall crossing point between East and West Berlin, during the cold war era.”
He trained as a LADA Mechanic for Nine months, the document says, for the rest of the time he was being indoctrinated on Marxists ideology by the Stasi. LADA is a Russian made automobile.

 Even here he was a poor student who took longer than others to grasp the basics of Marxist ideology. “He was disorganized and disruptive, never kept time and a raging alcoholic who loved to smoke marijuana,” says the report, quoting the same declassified intelligence files.

“He never kept friends but African students in East German then simply tolerated him because of his status and because he occasionally supplied them with east European prostitutes for a fee,” it says.

While he took longer to understand Communist ideology, he believed in it. He “excelled in the theory of political deception, mobilizing and political brinkmanship.” His instructors were impressed with his  achievement in this side with one noting he had been turned into a useful asset- a useful idiot, says the document.

The report seems to hold the view that Raila will lose again to Kenyatta in the forth-coming elections warning that Kenya could be on the edge of a precipice.  Raila could again reject the loss and do a Besingye- that is get some Luo judges to swear him as President perhaps in Kisumu. That would be treasonable and could lead to blood bath, it warns.
It is not clear if there are madmen among the Luo judges in the Judiciary who can undertake such a treasonable act.
Mobilzing Child Soldiers?
 However, even the Chief Justice and four others made a determination that Uhuru’s election was invalid with giving any ruling.

 The report warns that Raila would not blink if Kenya fell over the precipice if that is the price to pay to get him accommodated in the government.

Chronicling his penchant for Violence the report says that soon after he returned home, he organized the 1982 failed Coup together with Luo officers in Kenya Airforce. He also organized Mwakenya which targeted university students among his other disruptive activities.

It also chronicles fraudulent activities beginning with his father the Late, jaragmogi Oginga odinga, received a huge amount of Money from Russia in the name of Luo thrift Union indicating that the flagship family business EA Spectre was born at about the same time. There is nothing to shows for this Union.

At home we have witnessed well- choreographed deceit which leads to fraud. It would be recalled that in mid -1990s, there was massive mobiization of funds to buy east Africa molasses plant in Muhoroni which ended up as part of the Odinga business empire.

In the recent past, there was huge mobilsation for Okoa Kenya campaign. It is not clear how much was raised and how it was used. Neither is it clear how much was raised in the campaign to support teachers on strike in 2015 and how it was used.

The –adopt- a polling station was another example of a fraudulent mobilsation of funds. Some estimates put the figure at kshs260 million raised for this campaign but was not used for the intended purpose.

On deceit, in the last five years, the NASA leader, has spilled one scandal after another some of which have turned out to be no more than well -choreographed campaigns to destroy the careers of certain Kenyans. The most prominent was the Euro-Bond saga. After failing to sabotage the US$2 billion floatation in 2014, he came up with allegation that the Money was stolen. But he refused to give evidence of such crime when called to do so.

The Controller and Auditor General, Robert Ouko, has yet to release a report on his audit mission to the Federal Reserve Bank in new York, almost a year since the mission was completed. 

Monday, 4 September 2017

The economic cost of SCOK Ruling

Kenya's Supreme Court Bench in session
 Kenyans, especially Jubilee supporters, saved the Kenyan economy by restraining themselves after the Supreme Court nullified President Kenyatta’s election.

The world feared an outbreak of violence and investors quickly rushed for the exit door, offloading Kenyan stocks and other debt instruments in droves.

The Kenya shilling felt the pressure, losing 35 cents to the US dollar.  

The Nairobi Stock Exchange’s market capitalization shaved off kshs 92 billion in a single day! While the  was shaved off Kshs 357 million in its forex value.

 The bourse, a barometers of a country’s economic health, suffered a massive off load with all blue-chip scripts suffering a battering. It had to halt trading for an hour when the battering hit the red line.

 In a single five-hour trading day, a total of Shs 1.64 billion was traded. This is, in normal times, the exchange’s turnover in a week. An average of shs 547 million was traded every hour on Friday.
  In the forex market, the shilling which had been gaining since Uhuru was declared President, was also battered. It shred off 35 cents against the US dollar after the ruling.

It opened at 102/75 buying 102.95 selling Friday morning but slumped to 103.10 buying 103.20 selling. Kenyan debt stock overseas also bled. On that day alone Kenya’s forex reserves were shaved off kshs 356 million. The country’s daily turnover is slightly more than US$10 million.

Kenya’s $2 billion sovereign bond maturing in 2024 fell 1.33 cents, reports said, it’s lowest since mid-August. The 2019 issue fell 0.75 cents to 102.75 cents.
 Things only calmed down when the President, drunk as most puritans said he was, addressed the nation, saying he accepts the ruling although he differs with it. His call for peace calmed the markets. And his tour of Burma market removed the uncertainty completely.

 In Jubilee strongholds which were under close watch, the people were shocked but went on their business as usual- no disturbance of any kind. That entrenched the calm in the market.

The Nairobi stock exchange is capitalized at Kshs 2.3 trillion, slightly under a third of the country’s national wealth of Kshs 7.2 trillion. It is therefore a barometer of Kenya’s economic health and a good pointer to the mess, a poorly thought out ruling- whatever its merit- can inflict on the economy.

 Without going to the merits of the ruling, the judges, including the Chief Justice, for all his alleged wisdom, did not consider the implication on the economy, their ruling would have. In just a few hours after the ruling, Kenya lost billions in the value of its stocks and foreign exchange!

 The ruling will also slow down economic growth in the fourth quarter, due to ongoing campaigns for an election to be held within sixty days. It will also cost the tax payer another Kshs50 billion in preparation for the election.

This is a triple economic injustice on Kenyans whose will was sabotaged by the Supreme Court.  First they lost in terms of the country’s wealth, which loss shall never be recovered, they also will lost in terms of tax money that will be squandered on the election. And finally, they lost their sovereign will.

 The uncertainty continued into Monday’s trading because of NASA’s objection to IEBC conducting the election. However, now that the date has been set. It is expected the markets will cool down saving the economy further haemorrhage.